How to Calculate the Revenue Value of a Signed PI Case by Lead Source

A signed case is not always worth what it appears to be. Two vendors can each deliver 20 signed cases in a month. One produces cases that settle at an average of $28,000. The other produces cases that settle at $14,500. On cost per case alone, they look identical. On revenue value per case, one is nearly twice as productive as the other.

Calculating the revenue value of a signed case by lead source is one of the most financially significant analyses a PI firm can run — and most firms are not running it. This article walks through exactly how to build the calculation.

Why Revenue Value Per Case Varies by Lead Source

Not all lead sources send the same case mix. A vendor that generates inbound calls from TV advertising in a major market tends to produce higher-severity cases — larger settlements, more complex litigation, higher contingency fees. A pay-per-lead aggregator sending shared leads tends to produce lower-severity cases with faster resolution and smaller settlements.

Neither is inherently better. What matters is whether the economics work for your firm: is the revenue value of the cases produced by a given source worth the acquisition cost, accounting for the time and resources required to work each case?

You cannot answer that question without calculating revenue value per signed case by source.

The Two Components of Case Revenue Value

Revenue value for a signed PI case has two components that must be calculated separately.

Component 1: Expected Contingency Fee

This is your fee income when the case settles. Calculate it as:

Expected fee = Average settlement value × Contingency fee percentage

For a firm with 33% contingency and an average motor vehicle accident settlement of $22,000: expected fee = $7,260 per case.

The key word is “average.” Settlement values vary widely within case types — and that variation is the signal you are looking for when comparing lead sources. A vendor whose motor vehicle cases average $28,000 in settlement is producing $9,240 in expected fee revenue. A vendor whose cases average $14,500 is producing $4,785. Both are “motor vehicle cases.” The revenue difference is 93%.

Component 2: Case Cost Adjustment

Gross fee revenue is not the same as net case revenue. Every case carries direct costs — medical record retrieval, expert witnesses, filing fees, litigation expenses. These vary by case type and complexity.

Net revenue value = Expected fee − Average case costs

For many PI firms, average case costs run $1,500 to $4,000 per matter depending on complexity. A simple motor vehicle case may cost $1,200 to work. A complex trucking case may cost $8,000 or more. If you are comparing two lead sources with identical average fees but dramatically different case complexity, the source with simpler cases has meaningfully higher net revenue per case.

How to Calculate Revenue Value by Lead Source

Here is the step-by-step calculation.

Step 1: Pull Settled Cases by Lead Source

From your case management system, pull all cases that settled in the last 12 to 24 months. For each case, you need three fields: the originating lead source, the settlement amount, and the case type.

If your cases are not tagged with lead source, this is the critical data problem to fix first. Every case file must record where the lead came from. Without source tags on settled cases, you cannot run this analysis.

Step 2: Calculate Average Settlement by Source

Group settled cases by lead source. Calculate the average settlement amount for each source. For small sample sizes — fewer than 15 settled cases from a source — treat the number as directional, not definitive. You need at least 20 data points for a meaningful average.

Example output:

• Vendor A (inbound TV): Average settlement $31,200 — 33% fee = $10,296 per case
• Vendor B (pay-per-lead aggregator): Average settlement $16,800 — 33% fee = $5,544 per case
• Vendor C (LSA/Google Ads): Average settlement $24,500 — 33% fee = $8,085 per case
• Vendor D (social referral): Average settlement $13,200 — 33% fee = $4,356 per case

Step 3: Apply Case Cost Adjustment

If you track case costs by matter, apply your average case cost by case type to each source. If you do not track case costs by matter, use a blended average as a starting estimate.

Continuing the example with a $1,800 average case cost:

• Vendor A: $10,296 − $1,800 = $8,496 net revenue per case
• Vendor B: $5,544 − $1,800 = $3,744 net revenue per case
• Vendor C: $8,085 − $1,800 = $6,285 net revenue per case
• Vendor D: $4,356 − $1,800 = $2,556 net revenue per case

Step 4: Calculate Net ROI by Source

Now combine revenue value with acquisition cost to get the true case acquisition ROI for each vendor.

Net case ROI = (Net revenue per case − Cost per signed case) ÷ Cost per signed case

Example using $4,200 as the cost per signed case for all vendors:

• Vendor A: ($8,496 − $4,200) ÷ $4,200 = 102% ROI
• Vendor B: ($3,744 − $4,200) ÷ $4,200 = −11% ROI (negative)
• Vendor C: ($6,285 − $4,200) ÷ $4,200 = 50% ROI
• Vendor D: ($2,556 − $4,200) ÷ $4,200 = −39% ROI (deeply negative)

Vendor B and Vendor D are losing money for the firm — not because their cost per case is too high, but because the cases they deliver do not generate enough revenue to cover the acquisition cost. This is invisible if you are only tracking cost per case or cost per lead.

The 18-Month Lag Problem and How to Handle It

The fundamental challenge with revenue value analysis is that PI cases take 6 to 18 months to settle. You are always looking at historical data — cases that were signed 12 to 24 months ago, not the cases you signed last month.

This creates a real-time management problem. By the time you know that Vendor D is producing negative ROI, you may have been paying them for 18 months.

The practical solution is to use leading indicators — case type distribution, rejection rate, average case severity rating at intake — as proxies for expected settlement value. If Vendor D sends a disproportionate share of low-severity cases and high rejection rates, you can project lower expected settlement values before settlement data is available.

This is where a revenue intelligence platform with source-level tracking changes the analysis. Instead of waiting 18 months for confirmation, you have early signals available at 30 to 60 days.

What to Do With the Revenue Value Analysis

Once you have revenue value by source, three decisions become obvious that were not obvious before:

• Budget reallocation: Shift spend from negative-ROI sources toward positive-ROI sources. In the example above, eliminating Vendor D and reallocating that spend to Vendor A has an immediate positive impact on expected portfolio ROI.
• Renegotiation leverage: Vendors with higher case revenue value have more room to absorb higher cost-per-lead pricing. Vendors with lower case revenue value need to justify their invoices with lower per-case costs.
• New vendor evaluation criteria: Set minimum expected settlement value thresholds for new vendor tests based on your portfolio benchmarks.

This analysis, run consistently every six months, is what separates firms managing a marketing investment portfolio from firms paying vendor invoices and hoping for the best.

RevenueScale's revenue value attribution runs this analysis automatically by lead source — so you can make budget and renegotiation decisions without building it from scratch in a spreadsheet.