The Best Metrics for Evaluating Whether Your Lead Sources Produce Cases That Actually Settle

Cost per signed case tells you what you paid to acquire a case. It does not tell you whether that case will actually settle — or what it will be worth when it does. For PI firms spending $100,000+ per month on lead generation, the gap between signed cases and settled cases is where the real money hides.

A vendor that signs 10 cases per month but only settles 4 of them is fundamentally different from one that signs 6 but settles 5. The first vendor looks better on cost per signed case. The second produces more revenue. If you are not measuring beyond the signing, you are optimizing for the wrong outcome.

Here are the five metrics that separate lead sources producing real settlement revenue from those producing signed cases that go nowhere.

1. Settlement Rate by Source

Settlement rate is the percentage of signed cases from a given source that reach a settlement. This is the single most important metric most PI firms are not tracking — and it varies dramatically by vendor.

Across the industry, settlement rates by source typically range from 45% to 80%. That spread is enormous. A vendor with a 50% settlement rate means half of the cases you signed (and paid to acquire) produce zero revenue. The attorney time, the case costs, the overhead — all sunk into cases that never pay out.

The benchmark for a healthy vendor: 65% or higher settlement rate. Below 60%, investigate the cause. Below 50%, the vendor is likely producing leads that sign but cannot be successfully litigated — either because the injuries are too minor, liability is unclear, or insurance coverage is insufficient.

How to Calculate It

Settlement rate = (Cases settled from source / Cases signed from source) x 100. Use cohorts that are at least 18 months old — newer cohorts have cases still in the pipeline and will artificially deflate the rate. For a running estimate, include cases in active litigation as “pending” and report both the current rate and the projected rate based on historical maturation patterns.

2. Average Settlement Value by Source

Average settlement value by source measures the typical dollar amount of settlements produced by each vendor's leads. This metric, when combined with settlement rate, reveals the true revenue generation capacity of each source.

Two vendors with identical settlement rates can produce vastly different revenue. If Vendor A settles at an average of $95,000 and Vendor B settles at $165,000, Vendor B is generating 74% more revenue per settled case — even if their cost per lead is higher.

Important caveat: use median settlement value alongside the average. Settlement distributions are skewed — one large case can inflate the average and mask a vendor that typically produces low-value cases. When the average exceeds the median by more than 30%, the average is being distorted by outliers.

Vendor B's $165,000 average looks strong until you see the $89,000 median. Most of their cases settle under $90,000 — the average is inflated by a few large outliers. Vendor C's lower average of $118,000 is actually more representative of what you can expect from each case, with tight consistency around $112,000.

3. Time-to-Settle by Source

Time-to-settle measures how long cases from each source take to reach resolution. This matters because time is money — literally. A case that takes 24 months to settle ties up attorney capacity, incurs ongoing case costs, and delays the marketing ROI realization.

For a firm evaluating marketing spend, time-to-settle affects the present value of the investment. $100,000 in settlement revenue arriving at month 10 is worth more than $100,000 arriving at month 22. The marketing spend happened on day one. The longer the delay, the lower the effective return when adjusted for the time value of money and carrying costs.

Typical time-to-settle ranges for PI cases by source:

• Digital lead vendors: 10-16 months average. These leads tend to be smaller, straightforward cases that resolve faster.
• TV and radio campaigns: 14-22 months average. These campaigns often attract more complex cases with higher values but longer timelines.
• Referral sources: 8-14 months average. Referred cases often come pre-qualified with clearer liability, leading to faster resolution.
• Google Ads: 12-18 months average. Varies significantly by keyword intent — branded searches resolve faster than generic injury keywords.

Track time-to-settle at the source level and factor it into ROI calculations. A source with a 12-month average time-to-settle delivers revenue a full year earlier than one with a 24-month average — and that compounding difference matters at scale.

4. Case Attrition Rate by Source

Case attrition rate measures the percentage of signed cases from a source that are dropped, dismissed, or referred out before reaching settlement. This is the inverse of settlement rate — but breaking it down further reveals whether the attrition is due to lead quality (the vendor's problem) or case handling (your problem).

Categories of attrition:

• Client non-cooperation: The client stops responding, misses appointments, or fails to follow treatment. High rates here suggest the vendor is generating leads from people who are not genuinely committed to pursuing their claim.
• Liability issues:The case cannot establish liability. High rates here suggest the vendor's leads come from incidents where fault is unclear — a lead quality issue.
• Insufficient damages: The injuries are too minor to justify litigation. This is a direct reflection of lead targeting — the vendor is reaching people whose cases are not economically viable.
• Insurance coverage gaps: The at-fault party has insufficient coverage. This is harder for vendors to control but still affects the economic viability of the lead.

Vendor D's 48% settlement rate from earlier becomes clearer when you see the attrition breakdown. The problem is not random — it is driven by client non-cooperation (22%) and insufficient damages (18%). These are lead quality signals: the vendor is generating leads from people who are not committed and whose injuries may not support meaningful claims.

5. Revenue Per Marketing Dollar by Source

Revenue per marketing dollar is the ultimate metric — it incorporates lead volume, conversion rate, settlement rate, settlement value, and marketing cost into a single number. For every dollar you spend with a vendor, how many dollars in settlement revenue do you get back?

Calculation: Total settlement revenue from source (across all matured cohorts) divided by total marketing spend with that source over the same period.

Vendor C — which does not have the highest average settlement value or the most signed cases — produces the highest return per marketing dollar at $22.30. Its 81% settlement rate and consistent case values compound into superior total revenue despite a lower per-case average. Vendor D, despite competitive cost per signed case numbers, returns only $8.63 per dollar because nearly half its signed cases never settle.

This is the metric that answers the question every managing partner asks: “Is our marketing spend actually generating revenue?” Not leads. Not signed cases. Revenue.

Putting the Five Metrics Together

No single metric tells the full story. Here is how they work as a system:

• Settlement ratetells you whether a vendor's cases actually produce outcomes.
• Average and median settlement value tell you what those outcomes are worth and how predictable they are.
• Time-to-settle tells you when you will see the revenue and what the effective return is on a time-adjusted basis.
• Case attrition rate tells you why cases fail and whether the problem is lead quality or case handling.
• Revenue per marketing dollar synthesizes everything into the number that drives budget allocation.

Tracking all five requires connecting lead source data through to settlement outcomes — a connection that spans 12-24 months and crosses system boundaries. In a spreadsheet, this is an 8-12 hour monthly exercise with 60% accuracy. In a revenue intelligence platform, it is automated, continuous, and 95%+ accurate.

Benchmarks to Guide Your Evaluation

These benchmarks are calibrated for mid-size PI firms (10-50 attorneys) spending $100K-$750K per month on marketing. Larger firms with higher case values will see different absolute numbers, but the relative performance tiers remain consistent.

The firms that track these five metrics make budget decisions based on what their lead sources actually produce — not what they promise, and not what cost per lead suggests. Cost per signed case gets you halfway there. These metrics get you the rest of the way to understanding which sources generate revenue and which just generate activity.